Gaming Analyst Forecasts Strong, Yet Second-Place, Switch 2 US Sales in 2025
A recent prediction by gaming analyst Mat Piscatella suggests the Nintendo Switch 2 could sell approximately 4.3 million units in the US during 2025, assuming a first-half launch. This projection, while impressive, places the Switch 2 behind the PlayStation 5 in overall US console sales for the year.
Recall that the original Switch sold 4.8 million units in the US by the end of 2017, exceeding initial projections. This success led to significant supply chain challenges. With the Switch 2, anticipation is high, evidenced by frequent social media trends. However, Piscatella highlights that this online buzz doesn't guarantee comparable sales success. The Switch 2's performance will hinge on several crucial factors: launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its initial game lineup.
Piscatella's forecast, shared via social media, anticipates the Switch 2 capturing roughly one-third of the US console market (excluding handheld PCs like the Steam Deck). He acknowledges the potential for supply constraints due to high initial demand, but remains uncertain about Nintendo's production capacity. The company may have learned from the original Switch launch and pre-emptively addressed potential shortages.
While optimistic about the Switch 2's sales potential, Piscatella projects the PlayStation 5 to retain its leading position in the US market. The anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2025 could significantly boost PS5 sales. Nevertheless, the Switch 2's success remains highly dependent on the quality of its hardware and the appeal of its launch titles. A strong showing in both areas could significantly impact its market share.
